The “revolution” in Lebanon (for lack of better words) was, to a certain extent, inevitable. The failing economy, corruption, and political discord were bound to boil over into a volatile civil unrest. However, in order to impartially assess the October 17 Movement in Lebanon, it is important to shed some light on all the facts and factors that led to the national stalemate. In the midst of accusations and condemnations, cheers and attacks, the truth—in all its details—was oftentimes undermined. Ordinary citizens, immersed in socio-economic hardships, took to the streets in hopes for vital and immediate solutions. Then the uprising took a turn into a labyrinth of personal attacks, political hostilities, and partisan conflicts. What had started as a typical public protest transformed into something bigger, uglier, and more disturbing… 

 

It wasn’t enough that Prime Minister Hariri resigned, dismantling the government, throwing the country into more instability and uncertainty. Protestors wanted more: they blocked streets, burned tires, chanted and screamed “down with the regime” and “all of them means all of them”, demanding President Aoun to resign. 

First of all, Lebanon’s political system is definitely not a regime. Lebanon is a free and progressive democracy, one of very few in the Middle East. Hence, the borrowed term “regime” does not fit in this Lebanese so-called revolution, not to mention its timing, specifically right after hundreds of fires were simultaneously (and mysteriously) started in several areas in Lebanon. Before that, unsubstantiated fuel and currency crises, false accusations of exorbitant travel costs by President Aoun at the annual UN Conference in New York, as well as pressure from the European Union on countries hosting Syrian refugees to enable their integration in the society…

Second, Let’s look at the timeline of the events leading up to the uprising:

June 15: Foreign Affairs Minister Gebran Bassil visited the District of Becharre, prompting a war of banners in the district’s regions, (LBCI). Becharre is the turf of Lebanese Forces Leader Samir Geagea.

June 30: Two aides of Minister of Refugee Affairs Saleh El Gharib were killed in Qabr Shmoun in what he termed an attempted assassination (Reuters, Lebanon vows to restore security after deadly shootout). Minister of Foreign Affair Gebran Bassil was supposed to visit the area the same day but had to cancel for security reasons.

August 1: “If we do not all make a sacrifice today and accept to waive some of our benefits, we are running the risk of losing them all”, asserted President Aoun (Reuters, Aoun warns Lebanese of 'tough' measures unless economic sacrifices made). The budget that passed in 2019 included some politically tricky measures, such as a three-year freeze on state hiring. More difficult ideas were torpedoed, such as a public sector pay cut, and critics say the government also avoided the main problem: corruption.

August 8: The US Embassy in Beirut stressed on Washington’s support of a fair and transparent judicial review without any political interference in the June 30 incident in the village of Qabr Shmoun in Mount Lebanon’s Aley district. The embassy’s position was a rare and unprecedented statement related to a local Lebanese political and judicial affair (Al Sharq Al Awsat,US Calls on Lebanon to ‘Achieve Justice’ in Qabr Shamoun Incident). PM Hariri refused to put the incident on the Cabinet agenda, stating it would create a political split (Pressreader).

September 17: Gas station owners staged a nationwide strike to protest the government’s failure to provide enough dollars to pay suppliers (Bloomberg, Lebanon’s Gas Stations to Close to Protest Dollar Shortages). On September 28, a deal was reached for station owners to pay suppliers in Lebanese pounds. Minister Gebran Bassil commented by saying, “external pressure on the economy and the Lebanese pound… and local parties were exploiting the situation to undermine the government. There are local actors who are conspiring against the country and its economy. They are fabricating the situation to incite citizens against the state".

September 25: The Facebook “The Revolution of the Determined Lebanese People” Page was created, almost one month prior to the first protest (~64,000 members to date).

September 30: The president is falsely accused of incurring exorbitant travel costs to New York to attend the Annual United Nations Conference (eLNASHRA).

October 9: 

*Lebanese Forces Leader Samir Geagea travels to Canada. From Ottawa, he demands the formation of a new government mostly consisting of specialists and technocrats. (National News Agency). 

* European Union asks countries hosting Syrian refugees to facilitate their integration and employment in the society, to which President Aoun responds : “This stance contradicts Lebanon's regular calls for securing the return of Syrian refugees to their homeland especially that stability has prevailed in 90 percent of Syrian territories while conflicts have been restricted to certain areas only.” (National News Agency).

October 13:  Marking the Oct. 13 anniversary, Minister Bassil announced that he plans to visit Syria to secure the return of Syrian refugees. Minister Wael Abou Faour responded by stating: “Bassil is not going to Syria to return the refugees but rather to ‘beg for the presidency’ because he has been told that the path to the presidency goes through Damascus.” (BBC)

October 15: Extensive blazes - the worst in decades –mysteriously started in Lebanon's western mountains, amid a heatwave and strong winds (BBC, Lebanon calls for help as forest fires spread).

October 17: The government announced a new daily tax for calls made via voice-over-internet-protocol (VoIP), which is used by apps including WhatsApp, Facebook Messenger and Apple's FaceTime. Thousands have protested, calling on the government to step down over its handling of an economic crisis. The government backtracked hours later, but the protests continued (BBC, Lebanon scraps WhatsApp tax as protests rage). Under the main motto “All of Them”, Minister Bassil was harshly targeted with offensive and degrading slurs. Example: “Bassil out, refugees in.” (Note: Minister Bassil is the main advocate of the “Safe and Dignified Return of Syrian Refugees”to their homeland). Is it a coincident that Kushner, President Trump’s senior advisor, had visited the Middle East (Jordan and Israel), seeking a multi-billion dollar investment from countries in the region to spur the Palestinian and surrounding economies(CNN)?

Noticeable in the uprising were the generous (and questionable) donations:  Cash, delivered food and sweets, drinks, alcohol, tents, chairs, stages, microphones, giant speakers, internet, DJs, even umbrellas. Additionally, hundreds of “volunteers”, already trained to manage uprisings, were present in all squares.

October 29: Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigns. Prominent journalists tweeted” “Gebran Bassil Has fallen!”

November 10: Based on talks with different political parties, Hariri states that he practically wants a “government devoid of Hezbollah”, and referring to Amal and Gebran Bassil he stated, "If these faces return to government we will have pushed the street to return to protest in a greater way." (CompuServe, Hezbollah says its 'arms won't be twisted' as crisis deepens).

 

This dynamic revolution has already taken different paths: different squares, different participants, different styles, and different demands. The Lebanese people have become accustomed to new developments every day. However, a constant and prevalent component seems to be at the core. Is it apprehension, fear, adversity? One wonders about the source (and outcome) of such hostility. Is it just another wave to ride and acquire the communal demands…? Or is the inverse?

Only time will tell.

 

Marlene Sabeh